The collective value of weather probabilistic forecasts according to public threshold distribution patterns
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
"A 30% chance of rain tomorrow": how does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?
The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Therefore,...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Meteorological Applications
سال: 2013
ISSN: 1350-4827
DOI: 10.1002/met.1424